On Final Approach To Solar Maximum: Testing A Hypothesis In Real Time (Keynote)

A bit more than ten years ago we made a discovery. We identified, and then archaeologically re-identified, a relationship between magnetic objects on the Sun at a range of spatial scales and the Sun's 22 year Magnetic (or Hale) Cycle. That pattern (unfortunately) is called the "extended solar cycle". Further, that investigation identified a specific event that occurs at the very end of Hale Cycles, the 'terminator,' as being a critical component NECESSARY to explain how the Hale Cycle shapes the Sun's 11(-ish) year activity cycle. Fast forward a decade and we have successfully identified the terminator events going back beyond the earliest photography of the Sun (1860) to the mid-eighteenth century. Those 24 events permitted a forecast of Sunspot Cycle 25 to be made. That forecast became a 'litmus test' for what we understand about the solar activity cycle and the mechanism that generates and sustains the Sun's large-scale magnetic field. Why? Because the forecast we arrived at was 100% greater than that resulting from an assessment of the spectrum of models and forecasts in the community. We have been testing our hypothesis of the Sun's magnetism in real time since 2019. In this presentation we'll discuss the present status and talk about where things could go from here.